Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
YX 5809 · ORF → BOS
departs 11:55 AM ET · arrives 1:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to BOS?
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On time or early
88%
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15–30 min late
3%
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30 min–1 hour late
2%
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1–2 hours late
4%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.