Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 5818 · LGA → CLT
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.