Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 5826 · DTW → IND
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 12%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.