YX 5852 · DCA → BOS

departs 10:14 AM ET · arrives 11:58 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5852 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?