Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5856 · ORF → JFK
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.