Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5856 · ORF → JFK
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.