YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

departs 11:46 AM CT · arrives 2:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?