Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5857 · BOS → DCA
departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 15%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.