YX 5861 · BNA → DCA

departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 8:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5861 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?