Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1134 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1134 · MIA → SLC

departs 8:42 PM ET · arrives 11:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SLC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1134 · MIA → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?