Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1163 LANDED 1:30 AM ET, ~12 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

took off 11:19 PM CT · landed 1:30 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time