Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1250 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1250 · ORD → MIA

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 12:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4.71429 mi Precip0.24 in

MIA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1250 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?