Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1409 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1409 · AUS → JFK

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.52 in

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1409 · AUS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?