tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1409 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AA 1409 · AUS → JFK

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 120h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
36% chance · ±20 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 5.8d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JFK?

  1. On time or early
    63%
  2. 15–30 min late
    15%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    11%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.