Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1411 · MIA → AUS

departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.34 in

AUS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1411 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?