tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today

AA 1421 · ORD → JFK

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 8:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
37% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 3.8d 2d 1d Now 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JFK?

  1. On time or early
    62%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    15%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    8%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.