Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1501 · BNA → MIA

departs 5:32 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1501 · BNA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?