Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1506 · BNA → PHL

departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 6:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 3pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.34 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1506 · BNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?