Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1506 · BNA → PHL

departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 6:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.54 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1506 · BNA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?