Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 1511 · PHX → PHL
departs 5:02 AM MT · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to PHL?
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On time or early
88%
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15–30 min late
7%
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30 min–1 hour late
0%
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1–2 hours late
3%
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Over 2 hours late
1%
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Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.