Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1511SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1511 · PHX → PHL
departs 5:02 AM MT · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
7%chance · ±0 pts+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.