Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1526 · BNA → CLT

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1526 · BNA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?