Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1614 · BUF → CLT

departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1614 · BUF → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?