Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1833 · ORD → FCA

departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 12:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at FCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

FCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1833 · ORD → FCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCA?