Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1833 · ORD → FCA

departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 12:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at FCA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FCA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1833 · ORD → FCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCA?