Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1849 · DFW → SFO

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.55 in

SFO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1849 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?