Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1849 · DFW → SFO

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.44 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1849 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?