Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1859 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1859 · ORD → PHL

departs 1:29 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1859 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?