Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1859 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1859 · ORD → PHL

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1859 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?