Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1867
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1867 · SMF → PHX
departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to PHX?
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On time or early
93%
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15–30 min late
2%
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30 min–1 hour late
1%
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1–2 hours late
<1%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.