Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1867SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AA 1867 · SMF → PHX
departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 87h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
7%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.