Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1878 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1878 · DFW → FSD

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

FSD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1878 · DFW → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?