Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2003 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

departs 8:13 PM CT · arrives 10:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.32 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?