Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2025 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2025 · MIA → LAS

departs 8:26 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2025 · MIA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?