Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2069 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2069 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 56% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2069 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?