Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2140 · DFW → MRY

departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

MRY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2140 · DFW → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?