Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2186 · DFW → MCO

departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±7 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.69 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2186 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?