Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2186 · DFW → MCO

departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 10:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

MCO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2186 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?