Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2261 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2261 · STL → DFW

departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 7:27 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2261 · STL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?