Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2296 · PIT → ORD

departs 8:49 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at PIT that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.34 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,633 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2296 · PIT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?