Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2454 · DCA → RSW

departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

RSW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2454 · DCA → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?