Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2454 · RSW → DCA

departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ RSW usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2454 · RSW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?