Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2519 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 2519 · DFW → SDF

departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

SDF (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2519 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?