Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2519 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2519 · DFW → SDF

departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,467 ft forecast at SDF that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

SDF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2519 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?