Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2568 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2568 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?