Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2577 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2577 · LAX → MIA

departs 11:59 PM PT · arrives 8:20 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 11pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2577 · LAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?