Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2584 · SJU → MIA

departs 3:02 PM AT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SJU are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SJU usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2584 · SJU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?