Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2608 LANDED 11:05 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AA 2608 · CLT → IAD

took off 10:11 PM ET · landed 11:05 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2608 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time