Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2744 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2744 · STT → MIA

departs 1:49 PM AST · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ STT usually runs smoothly

↓ 1pm departures from STT are usually not late

Weather at each end

STT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2744 · STT → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?