Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2786 · ORD → PHX

departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 12:14 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.17 in

PHX (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2786 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?